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COVID-19 will--not might--change our world. This page tries to find the silver linings, brights spots, etc. from this pandemic. Or, if you prefer a different analogy, how we can make lemonade out of lemons. In addition, we're compiling other lists such as Unthought-of Impacts, and Long-Term Unlikely To Return To Glory. If you have examples you would like added to this list, please send them to dwilliams@LBSGlobe.com.
LBS Globe
Last Update: April 6, 2020
Likely Positive Consequences of the Pandemic
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Resurrected interest in entering the medical profession (formerly under stress from Obamacare, Medicare-for-All, etc.)
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Reduced handshakes as a form of greeting (in certain countries), likely reducing future flus, etc.
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Greater work from home (from a family standpoint, but with some obvious downsides (lack of workspace, "too much" family time, etc.)
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Reduced commuting and associated impacts (e.g. less smog, possibly even to the point of climate change benefits)
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Long overdue restructuring of Higher Education (in the U.S. at least), with a much greater, much faster adoption of distance-learning, with associated restructuring of traditional (overpriced) colleges/universities.
Unthought-of Impacts (Cousin of Law of Unintended Consequences)
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Movement/migration away from cities
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Renewed interest in farming, rural living
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Increase in work-at-home (in heretofore industries/companies that had not ever considered it)
- Related: dramatic rise in domestic violence
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Major changes in apartment construction (away from central entrance/egress/elevators/stairwells) to motel-like consruction (e.g. multiple, separate entrances)
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Decreased sensitivity to loss of privacy and civil liberties (in the U.S.) as loss as viewed as "necessary" to fight coronavirus
Long-Term Unlikely to Return to Glory (both obvious and not so much)
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Airlines (while it will come back, it will be a LONG time before people are comfortable with it again
- Cruise lines (same reason)
- Commercial Office Building (From increase in Work-At-Home)
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WeWork (For same reason as commerical office buildings, PLUS their deliberate emphasis on designs to "promote social interaction"
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Major city real estate (home mortgages; rental might stay ok as people do not invest their nest eggs, and preserve flexiibility to leave)
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AirBnb - Fear of uneven cleanliness, and poor job in current crisis in dealing with cancellations. (In contrast, hotels are emphasizing deep cleaning, consistency of service, and did good job on refunds)
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Large #'s of marginal colleges/universities (see positive above regarding distance learning)
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The "de-globalization" of supply chains, particular wrt to China, as companies a) react to tremendous political pressure, and b) companies realize they do not want so much of their SC out of their control
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INTENSE pressure to reduce the use of outsourcing, as already strong resistance to the outsourcing of U.S. jobs rises exponentially in the face of double-digit unemployment. Time to retool your business strategies Accenture, IBM, and Infosys!
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People are going to be VERY skitish about major capital purchases, e.g. cars. Housing in major cities will take a major hit, as prices plunge and people move away to reduce big-city risk (e.g. NYC). Unclear as to what markets for 2nd homes will be--will people look to have that getaway? Or will they hunker down and build their one house into a castle fortress?